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Global economic data was soft raising expectations of further delay in QE-3 tapering to CY 14. Jobs growth took a hit in the month of September and to make matters worse the US federal Government shutdown for a period of 16 days over debates surrounding the budget approvals and Affordable Care Act. Euro area growth has been faltering more in comparison with other developed economies while hope is emerging in China with strong GDP numbers for the latest quarter. At home, domestic growth and inflation numbers disappointed but increased risk appetite and RBI’s policy normalization boosted the performance of markets.
Nifty gained a solid 9.83% over the month. FII inflows and strong quarterly earnings performance brought about this equity market rally. This was in addition to the follow through of easy global liquidity with delay in FED QE tapering to Q1CY14. RBI cut MSF rate by 75 bps over the month to ease the pressure on banks’ short term financing costs, but raised Repo rate by 25 bps to arrest inflation expectations. Further positive news came in the form of lower current account deficit for the first quarter of FY14 at around 4.9% as exports improved and imports slowed down. This meant that the rupee stabilized in the 61-62 band against the dollar. Sectoral performance was mixed. Banking, Auto & Metals outperformed while FMCG & Pharma underperformed. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were buyers of US$ 2.5 bn over the month. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were sellers of US$ 2.6 bn in October.
Debt market recovered in month of October'2013 tracking the domestic & global developments. RBI, in its policy meeting hiked repo rate by 25 bps to 7.75% and reduced the MSF rate by 25 bps to 8.75%, in line with market expectations. Further, amount of liquidity provided through term repos of 7-day and 14-day tenor has been increased from 0.25% of NDTL to 0.5% with immediate effect. RBI restored the corridor of MSF & Repo rate to 100 bps. WPI (6.5% YoY vs. 6.1% YoY in August) and CPI (9.8% YoY vs. 9.5% YoY in August) inflation data released were above market expectations. On the market movement, 5 years & higher yields have eased by 25-30 bps. Short term yields upto 1 year paper eased by 80-100 Bps. The INR continued to strengthen in October as external environment improved. The inflows from the swaps & capital flows in equity were strong.
Aggregate AUM of Max Life Insurance Co Ltd crossed 20K crores as at 31 Dec 2012 registering a growth of 31% over the year.
Investment newsletter - June 2013
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