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Growth indicators coming out of developed markets were relatively better than emerging markets. US data continued to surprise on the negative with ISM manufacturing index coming in at much lower than expectations and even the monthly non-farm payrolls data came in at significantly lower levels of just about 113000. The Fed indicated that it will continue with another round of tapering as hinted by the new Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen. China growth data continued to disappoint and caused some ripples across global markets especially with contracting exports in February and a corporate default by a Chinese solar power firm. There were geo-political tensions emanating out of Ukraine; however subsequently market participants have viewed issues in Ukraine and Crimea as a localized affair.
Nifty rose 3.08% over the month. Investors especially FIIs, have supported the buoyant movement in markets, as they believe that a decisive election victory in the national elections could significantly move up India’s GDP growth. Inflation surprised positively with CPI coming at 8.79% versus 9.87% and WPI coming at 5.05% versus last month’s 6.16%. The FM presented an interim budget where FY 15 deficit was budgeted at 4.1% against FY14 fiscal deficit of 4.6%(RE), lower compared to the 4.8%(BE). Sector performance was mixed. Autos, Information Technology and Pharma outperformed while Metals under-performed. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were buyers of US$ 229 mn over the month. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were buyers of US$ 46 mn in February.
WPI Inflation for the month of January'2014 came better then consensus at 5.05% vs. 6.16% for previous month. WPI Inflation has fallen on the back of fall in food & vegetable inflation. However, core inflation edged up to 3.02% vs. 2.81% in previous month. CPI Inflation also came lower at 8.79% for January'2014 vs. 9.87% previous month mainly due to fall in Food, beverages & tobacco prices. Core CPI, though increases to 8.11% as against 8.05% last month. Yields moved up marginally in the month after RBI surprisingly hiked Repo rate in the quarterly policy meet in last week of January'14. Banking system liquidity deficit rose in the month as compared to January'14. The 10 year benchmark G-sec closed at 8.86% vs 8.79% previous month. Longer Gsec closing level are 9.25% - 9.30%. The 10 Year PSU Bond closing yield is 9.76% vs. 9.66%. The corporate bond spreads remained range bound due to limited supply. The USD/INR strengthened towards the end of the month and appreciated by 1.5% in February month on the back of FII flows in the capital market.
Aggregate AUM of Max Life Insurance Co Ltd crossed 20K crores as at 31 Dec 2012 registering a growth of 31% over the year.
Investment newsletter - June 2013
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