March 2013
Economic indicators out of USA and Japan surprised positively. This combined with guidance of continued easy monetary policy lead to equities in the developed world out-performing the developing world. Europe continues to be in an economic recession. Timely bailout funding in Cyprus from the EU and IMF amounting to 10 bn Euros helped investor sentiment from deteriorating. At home, DMK’s exit from the UPA coalition and RBI’s hawkish tone kept investor sentiments muted. The Government appears safe at this point largely through support from the SP and BSP parties. However, impact on policy making remains to be seen. In its mid-quarter policy meeting, the RBI cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps to 7.50%, but the Central Bank indicated that the scope for further easing is limited. Inflation especially consumer inflation continues to be uncomfortably high. India’s October-December Current Account Deficit increased to US$32 bn (6.7% of GDP). Slowing export growth and strong imports resulted in a trade deficit of 12.5% of GDP.
Equity
Nifty lost 0.18% over the month which was dominated by political action, signifying that the economic action re-initiated by the Government has paused a bit . Low risk appetite was reflected in sector performance. FMCG, Pharma and IT Services outperformed while Auto, Metal and Infrastructure companies underperformed. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were buyers of US$ 1.9 bn over the month. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were sellers of US$ 1.4 bn over March
Fixed Income
10-year benchmark treasury yields increased 9 bps to 7.96% over the month. Bond market investors turned cautious post the mid-quarter policy. Though the repo rate was cut by 25bps, the tone was hawkish with a clear message that the scope of further rate cut is limited. CPI remains in uncomfortable double digits and WPI too is high at 6.84%, despite sharp fall in core inflation and positive IIP growth of 2.4% both added to negative sentiments. The liquidity scenario remains tight with the LAF window borrowings by banks standing at INR 1 trillion which boosts expectations of OMOs in the first quarter of the fiscal year. INR appreciated by a marginal degree of 0.15% over the month.