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1800 200 5577
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FOMC’s minutes post April’s policy meet signalled that the US Fed is unlikely to hike interest rates in June. However the Fed’s constant guidance has ensured that the market is conditioned to expect a hike later this year. On the other hand, Greece related uncertainty continues with uncertainty around a deal between the EU and Greece. China continues to attract attention from global investors. The PBoC cut the 1year lending rate 25bps to 5.1% and the 1year deposit rate to 2.25%. The Central bank also raised the ceiling that banks can pay depositors in its effort to liberalise domestic interest rates.
Indian equities gained 3.1% during the month. Corporate earnings continue to disappoint. The Government in Parliament’s Budget session was unable to pass the GST bill and the Land Acquisition bill as both are yet to be passed in the upper house.CPI number was 4.9% YoY vs. 5.3% in Mar-15 and IIP growth came in at 2.1% in March lower than consensus. Information Technology and Consumption Discretionary stocks outperformed the market this month whereas Metals and Real Estate sector underperformed the market .FIIs sold around $70mn during the month. DIIs bought around $1.3bn over the month.
In the month of May 2015 new 10 year benchmark note was introduced which came at a cut off of 7.72% and ended the month at 7.64%, 8 bps lower. The older benchmark ended at 7.82% 4 bps lower in the Month. INR weakened to 63.81 per dollar depreciating by 0.61% in the month.
CPI for the month of April moderated to 4.9% following a slightly upward revised print of 5.3% in Mar. Food inflation eased to 5.4% vs 6.3% last month with deceleration across most categories except pulses. Core CPI was largely unchanged at 4% suggesting subdued demand conditions. The easing trend also reflected in the WPI for the month of April which came in at -2.7% vs -2.3% the previous month. Similar to the fine print in CPI, the deceleration was seen in food inflation (5.7% vs 6.3% last month) while core WPI remained unchanged at -0.4% FY15 GDP was reported during the month of May and saw an improvement from 6.9% in FY14 to 7.3%.Following the strong 4.9% growth last month, industrial production came in below expectations at 2.1% YoY in Mar. On the use-based classification, cap goods rose by 6.2% in FY15 vs 3.6% decline last year but consumer goods fell 3.5% vs 2.8%. On the supply side, mining and manufacturing was the key drag.
While there was no policy meeting scheduled in May, the market had been keenly waiting for the Jun 2 policy meeting. Comments had emerged from various sections of the government including the Finance Minister, seeking this cut. On June 02, RBI did cut repo rate by 25 bps and mentioned this to be a frontloaded rate cut.
Despite a normalization in gold imports ($3.2bn in Apr vs $5bn in Mar), the merchandise trade deficit stayed elevated at $11bn vs $11.8bn for the month of April. Following a 21% contraction in Mar, exports fell by 14% primarily led by petroleum products. Imports fell by 7.5% with crude imports down ~43%
Monsoon continued to be a worry as Indian Met Department revised expected rainfall forecast lower to 88% of long period average vs 93% initial estimate. It also highlighted that El Niño conditions are likely to persist.
Our aggregate Traditional portfolio witnessed a growth of 34.51%, and overall portfolio grew by 25% over the last one year till June 2014
Investment newsletter - March 2015
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